Tony’s Trends – Your Stats Sourced Selection for The Pavers’ Handicap, York , 11 June 2022

The Pavers’ Foundation Catherine Memorial Sprint Handicap, 6 Furlongs, York, Saturday June 11th 2022

Another week and another nice result for Trends followers.

Not only a place in the Oaks and the winner of the Derby, but the place part of the EW Double also landed. So, with the best prices from Bet365, following the Trends advice should have brought you a small profit.

Actually, the Trends have hit a real purple patch over the last five to six weeks and I hope that by continuing to use these additional data points we can all make some really nice profits!

Over on the Discord community, Ginger Joe had some winning bets, plus Joe McCabe had a NAP land last Sunday, as well as another nice winner too. The Discord channel is free to join and well worth it, as a few members also identified some nice priced winners!!

Note: JJ Slevin in Ireland and Ben Curtis in the UK are under-rated jockeys they identified and are well worth monitoring.

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The Derby

I really could not believe that Desert Crown (as tipped by myself, Ginger Joe and Joe McCabe) drifted out on the day to as big as 3/1, before being backed into 5/2. While I went with the wrong O’Brien horse in the Oaks, the Derby was over four furlongs out, and you could call the winner at that point.

I accept some will claim that Westover was checked at a vital time. However, he was all-out too close, while the winner was being eased near the finish and came in under a hands and heels ride.

I think we witnessed a superstar, definitely another for the notebook, but going forward I do not see the bookies being as generous with his odds next time around. So, it’ll be a watching brief for all of us ‘normal punters’ who don’t do huge bets at odds-on prices, which is not something that interests me either!

Royal Ascot

This weekend is a real story of the calm before the storm, with five fantastic days racing at Royal Ascot to look forward to. As at Cheltenham, I will put up more articles and fancies for the racing, but will try to get them posted after final declarations and the draw is known.

I intended to concentrate on a big Handicap each day rather than the Group races, but may comment if there are really strong Trends, as at Cheltenham. As a result, the racing this weekend will be decent, but many fields will be small (or races will not have a long history) to allow a detailed Trends analysis.

The Pavers Foundation Catherine Memorial Sprint Handicap

This week, taking account of the stated limitations of the racing, we will try to solve a big field, six-furlong sprint for three-year-olds at York. I have selected this race, as those who place often have good careers and are worth following.

Age

The York Pavers is a race for three-year-olds only, so this Trends criterion will not assist us here.

Weight

There have been only nine renewals of this race. So, I will apply some level of caution when discounting horses. However, based on this small data set, all of the previous winners carried between 08-03 and 09-07.

Odds

Only one Favourite has won and he was a 7/1 shot. Winners have ranged in price from 5/1 to 25/1, so many of these are on an upward curve and outsiders can pop up and spring a surprise.

Other Trends

All previous winners who were allotted an OR were rated at least 81, but none more than 102.All previous winners achieved an RPR of at least 83 (except Twilight Sun in 2015, but he had been gelded and despite being sent off as the 11/10 Favourite, he was drawn on the wrong side away from the action in his prep run).Excluding that one, the remaining winners achieved an RPR of at least 94, but not more than 105.All previous winners had a prep run: one prep (x3), two preps (x 4) or three prep runs (x 2) in the season they won, within 42 days of the race.All previous winners of the race ran in a Handicap (either a Class 2 or 3) on their prep run.All previous winners had run at least three times but not more than eleven.

Trends review

In short, the Trends indicate we are looking for a horse who is regarded well by connections and has shown a decent level of form to get a seasonal RPR of at least 83.

I will firstly discount Atomic Lady who is a season debutant.

Next, I will remove any runner set to carry more than 09-07, which takes out Gisburn.

I will also discount any runner who has had more than three runs this season. In race card order those are:

Harry ThreeAnnafLucky ManResilienceLethal LeviSelby’s PrideBay BreezeDevaste

Now, I will discount any of the remaining runners who do not meet the OR or the RPR requirements. Again, in race card order these are:

Admiral D (seasonal RPR too low)Vintage Clarets (seasonal RPR too low)Amber Dew (seasonal RPR too low)Another Investment (seasonal RPR too low)Showtime Mahomes (seasonal RPR too low)Roach Power (seasonal RPR too low)

Finally, I will remove those remaining runners who did not run in the Class 2 or 3 Handicap in their final run, namely Watchya and Edward Cornelius.

Discussion

We therefore have just a single qualifier to review, which is Ingra Tor.

Although out of a listed Dam, Ingra Tor showed nothing special on his debut as a two-year-old, finishing down the field in a decent Newmarket Maiden. The others in the field have run well, so maybe I am being a little hard on him.

His yard must have looked after him well, as over the winter he improved significantly to win a Maiden, showing a decent turn of foot to put the race to bed when challenged one furlong out.

He was a little too free early on in his next run and was unable to concede a penalty to an unfancied outsider, but that was still a decent run. He then ran in his first Handicap at Newmarket and with more pace in a bigger field, settled well before sprinting clear to win a shade more cosily than the margin shows.

The RP stated that Ingra Tor was “helped by his track position, but even so he looks a young sprinter on the upgrade”. While Harry Three is re-opposing on better terms, the manner of the defeat does not make it likely that he will overturn the form.

Trends conclusion

While there was only the one qualifier, I would again point out that a more limited data set than usual can give misleading results, but with just a single qualifier, we must select him. He is available around 9/2 or 5/1 at time of writing, with all major bookies going four places.

A cautionary note

I would recommend that you keep your stakes small this weekend, especially ahead of the five days of the Royal Ascot meeting coming up. At least at Ascot we will have better data sets to apply, in the hope of finding even more winners.

As always use Betting.co.uk to find the best deals and Oddschecker to find the best prices for the race!

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