Trends news
I have nothing good to report I’m afraid, as a really disappointing run from Ingra Tor, who was sent off as the clear Favourite for the Pavers’, could not confirm his previous form against the winner, Harry Three.
When there are limited Trends, I always urge caution, but I am truly shocked that he could not at least finish in the top six. With the great odds from 10Bet and six places on offer, it was a massive let down. I can only apologise, but limited Trends can (and do) throw up strange results.
Moving swiftly on…
We can now get ready for a whole five days of top-class punting, but just like Cheltenham in March, there are a number of races which have odds on Favourites where frankly, the average punter is sometimes best watching and enjoying the race without betting.
As I also mentioned last time, I am aiming to concentrate on the big field Handicaps throughout Ascot week, where we will be sure to find extra place offers from the top UK bookies. And if you’re looking to open a new account, be sure to check out betting.co.uk for the best offers!
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Ascot racecourse
The Ascot track forms a right-handed triangle. It’s very much a galloping track, with few undulations, but it does present challenges. A single circuit is just a tad over 1 mile, 6 furlongs and there is a 2½ furlong run in.
There is also a straight mile and a round mile, so there’s plenty of variety. However, a point worth noting is that all races up to 7 furlongs are run on the straight course, which has an uphill finish that requires the horses to see out their races. So, it will really pay to look at form over longer distances when making your selections.
Ascot Day 1 overview
14.30 On Tuesday, Royal Ascot has seven races on the card and the opener is The Queen Anne Stakes. For this one, I think Baeed is supported by the Trends, not to mention form and is the likely winner. However, at odds of 1/4 he is not much of a punting opportunity.
15.05 In the Coventry Stakes, the Favourite has won four of the last ten renewals, with Aiden O’Brien supplying three of the ten. This will be a fascinating race, but the booking of Silvestre De Sousa for the Alice Haynes runner, Remarkable Force, is interesting and may be a value EW play, so look out for the bookies paying extra places, as bigger priced horses often place in this race.
15.40 The King’s Stand is a race which will require luck during running, but the top two in the market look vulnerable based on stats, as just one of the past ten winners was the Favourite, although eight were returned at a single figure SP.
There are some bookies going extra places and I feel Twilight Calls may just pick up the pieces if the Wesley Ward runner, Golden Pal, goes off too fast, as is expected. Also, he was placed second over course and distance previously, so I know he handles the track but will need luck on his side.
16.20 The St James’s Palace is another where the market tends to find the winner, with none being returned at an SP greater than 10/1. However, many times the fields were not this big and this may be distorted.
There are extra places out there, so maybe look for an outsider like Light Infantry. His seasonal debut was in the 2000 Guineas and he could finish closer than the six lengths he was behind the Favourite that day and at a much more inviting price.
17.00 I am dealing with the Ascot Stakes in the Trends.
17.35 For the Wolferton, again the market has found the winner well, with eight being sent off at a single figure price. But this makes for a wide-open affair and I have no real opinion here.
18.10 There have been just two renewals of the Copper Horse Stakes, but this looks set up for Cleveland if he can back up his last run at Chester. However, this race is just over 4 furlongs shorter and the horses he beat at Chester have gone for the Ascot Stakes.
The Ascot Stakes, 2 miles 4 furlongs & Day 2 Royal Hunt Cup, 1mile
With the exception of 2005, when York hosted the meeting, I will use the results from the last 33 renewals of this race, starting from 1988. A large data set like this should help us to see Trends and reduce the field. I’ll also examine the form of the qualifiers, to see if I can find those selections that have the best chance of making us a profit.
There has been a definite change in the profile of winners here, as jumps trainers have decided to aim some decent National Hunt performers at this race, seeking both the prize money and the kudos that go with training a Royal Ascot winner. In doing this, they are trying to take advantage of a more lenient Flat rating for charges who have improved over obstacles and could be well in.
Age
The age of the winning horses has varied considerably over the 33 renewals of this race we started off looking at: 4 years (x 12), 5 years (x 8), 6 years (x 3), 7 years (x 7), 8 years (x 2) and 9 years (x 1).
As mentioned there has been a change in the profile of winners over the last 21 running’s. Largely, it is the age profile that looks different, so we will concentrate on those last 21 renewals which reflect that Trend criterion. The 21 most recent winners were aged 4 years (x 5, the last in 2009), 5 years (x 6), 6 years (x 2), 7 years (x 5, all since 2010), 8 years (x 2) and just the one 9-year-old.
Weight
With the profile of winners changing since around 2000, we will again ignore data before that date. As a result, the 21 previous winners carried between 8-10 and 9-10.
Odds
Of the 21 winners now under consideration, ten had odds of 10/1 or less, including just three Favourites, although two have won in the last seven years. Over that time there have been ten winners at prices between 11/1 and 25/1 (x 8) and one at 33/1, but last year Reshoun clicked at 66/1.
Other Trends
Since 2000, 15 of the 21 previous winners had a mixed campaign of both Flat and National Hunt races. These dual performers were all highly regarded over obstacles and had achieved an RPR of at least 125 in that sphere, with the exception of Missoula in 2008 who was still just a novice.The previous “Flat” winners had run in stayers’ Handicaps such as the Chester Cup or at Ascot.The last 12 winners were supplied by Willie Mullins, who is well-regarded as a jumps trainer and has supplied five of the last twelve winners. Ian Williams supplied two and the others were either from the top UK yards (Henderson, Alan King and JJ O’Neill) or Irish yards known for laying one out (Charles Byrnes and Jarlath Fahey).The draw has not been a major deciding factor in the race, with winners coming from a mix of low and high draws.Those who had achieved a Flat OR rating, were rated between 68 and 101, but if we exclude the outlier, Sindapour, then that changes to between 83 and 101.Those who had achieved a Flat RPR rating, were rated between 77 and 103. Again, if we exclude Sindapour, that becomes 83 to 103.All 33 previous winners had run within 68 days of the race, but 52 days since 1990.All winners since 2004 had won a race over at least 2 miles and in 25 of the last 33 renewals, the five horses who did not were four-year-olds.
Trend review
In short, the Trends indicate we are looking for a horse that has proven its stamina and run within 52 days of the race.
I will firstly discount those runners who are carrying too much weight, which removes Proschema and Rock Eagle.
I will now discount any of those remaining who have not run within 52 days of the race. In race card order those are:
Marshall PlanPied PiperWho Dares Wins (who is also too old)ScaramangaLydfordMoon King
Next, I will remove any remaining runner who is aged over four years and has not won a race over at least 2 miles, namely:
ColtraneProtected GuestMake My Day
I will also discount any of the remaining runners who do not meet the OR or RPR requirements, which takes out Themaxwecan.
Finally, I will discount Reshoun from the Ian Williams yard, as no previous winner has retained their crown.
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Discussion
We now need to review seven qualifying horses, who I will discuss in race card order.
Arcadian Sunrise has been well-backed a few times to land a staying Handicap. He obliged at York last August and ran reasonably well in the Chester Cup. The latter race would not have suited and he was returning from a long lay-off. One concern would be why Jamie Spenser is not on board, unless Harry Davies’ 5lb claim is going to be required?
Tribal Art is a typical Mark Johnson type, but has run four times this year (no previous Flat winner had run more than three times) and so he looks a little exposed. However, the bigger concern is that he is a four-year-old and none have won since 2009. That said, his trainer did have a four-year-old winner in 2004.
Golden Flame is another Johnson four-year-old, but his last run over 2 miles (when just touched off by Valley Forge) was really impressive. It was especially notable, as Valley Forge was well fancied (and tipped by Joe McCabe). He was backed down on the day and he was giving the winner 4lbs, so he could well continue to improve again here.
Bring On The Night is the Willie Mullins representative, who has been the ante-post favourite since betting opened. He was sent off at just 7/2 to win a race at Punchestown, but that appeared too sharp and he has been stepped up. Ryan Moore, who has ridden the winner three times, has been booked, making Bring On The Night look like a very serious contender.
Going Gone is a four-year-old, who won a pair of Class 3 Handicaps at Newmarket and Epsom, before fading badly when stepped up to 1 mile and 6 furlongs, so I have some serious reservations about him staying this distance as a result.
Surrey Gold was gelded over the winter and ran well last time, when going down by a neck at Goodwood in May. That run was a step up on what he achieved as a three-year-old and he is clearly on the up, but maybe he will have a better chance next year.
Just Hubert is a standing dish in stayers’ Handicaps, but he was unable to get cover last year from a high draw. I get a sense of déjà vu for this race, as he has drawn stall 20 and may again be shuffled back, or trapped wide.
The Ascot Stakes Conclusion
Willie Mullins has had four winners and a second placer since 2012. He had three runners last year, so his sole representative, Bring On The Night, has to be the main selection. I feel he will drift as the money keeps coming for Pied Piper and I hope I can get 5/1 on the day.
Given all the extra places available for this race, I’ll also have a saver on Golden Flame, who looks one of the better types Mark Johnson has sent here in recent years.
Betting notes
There are some bookies, including 10Bet, offering extra places for this race, so make sure you look around and get those crucial extra slots to maximise your chances.
As always, use Oddschecker to make sure you’re getting the best odds and betting.co.uk to find the best bookie deals for this race.
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