Here at betting.co.uk, we thought you might like to know a bit more about our awesome team of horse racing pundits and analysts. Together they provide a diverse range of perspectives on the world of horse racing and betting, which have helped their followers to make profits in 2022. After that, we’re going to move on to a VERY exciting Trends review!
How it all started
The Ginger Joe team started to come together in late 2021, when Joe, a professional punter, decided to share his selections more widely and without charge! As part of this initiative, he decided to set up a Discord channel to allow other racing fans to share their experiences and ask questions.
The Team
Ginger Joe: You can read lots more about Ginger Joe right here on betting.co.uk, or check out Joe’s YouTube channel and social media pages, but suffice to say he has years of rock-solid credentials and a true passion for horse racing.
Tony D: It was on Discord that Joe met Tony D, an avid racing follower for many years, who took a different approach – choosing to punt on big-field Handicaps, where bookies usually offer extended places and decent prices.
Joe noted that Tony did well with his hybrid approach, which combines using trends analysis and form to make large fields more manageable, and added him to the team. Tony is not on social media and if you want to ask him questions, you’ll have to join the Discord Community.
Joe McCabe: In the meantime, Ginger Joe met Joe McCabe, an avid racing fan who is adept at reading form. Joe M’s earliest memory of horse racing was during a family trip to Beverley racecourse, when he placed his first £1 bet, which lost when his horse came in second.
However, from that moment on, Joe was hooked on the sport and has more than made up for that initial loss over the last four or five years. He has been a regular visitor at various racecourses over that time and he’s developed a keen eye to read races and spot horses coming into form.
He also keeps an eye out for under-rated jockeys who are up and coming and whose mounts are often overpriced. Joe has already launched JM Racing, his own YouTube channel and he has big plans for his future career in horse racing, so watch this space!
More about Tony’s Trends
Many of our readers are intrigued by the Trends and have asked us loads of questions about Tony and the methodology behind his selections, so here’s some more information he’s kindly provided for you.
Trends – Why bother?
Although many of you might believe that delving deep into the statistics of individual races is stepping into racing buff territory and that stats are less relevant than form or tips, think again. We’re all on the same page – finding winners and avoiding poor value bets – so now we’ll show you how using a blended approach is key.
Let’s start by taking a look at a couple of examples:
At Musselburgh racecourse, in Handicap races with 12 or more runners, Stalls 1 to 4 have supplied just ONE winner from 74 applicable races over the past five years. When you tell people that, then they are less quick to dismiss stats and trends.You may see a trainer with a short-priced Favourite that looks starred for success based on form. But, when you take into account that the trainer has not had a winner at the course in 50 runs and furthermore has been without a winner anywhere in three months, the horse suddenly doesn’t look quite so appealing.
These are the type of key stats and trends that punters must consider when seeking value. Arguably, the most important aspect of trends analysis is that it can reveal elements that you will not find using more ‘normal’ methods of race analysis.
For example, knowing that a particular race favours younger horses, less experienced Handicappers, or higher-weighted runners is an essential factor when you are making your selections.
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How did Tony’s Trends start?
After joining Discord in November 2021, Tony posted a few stats-based selections ahead of some big races for the Discord group and found some big priced winners, which intrigued Ginger Joe. Initially Joe was sceptical, but like all professionals he was open to seeing if a new angle could work.
So, in January 2022, Tony was added to the Ginger Joe team and tasked with providing Tony’s Trends once a week on a trial basis. The first week was painful, as the Trends narrowed it down to two possible winners and Tony went for the wrong one.
The one he dismissed went on to win at odds of 28/1 and while the result in terms of profit was not ideal, the concept itself had shown promise. It was also helpful to learn that some readers and Discord community members had backed the alternative Trends qualifier and were very keen to see more Trends selections.
Now, while Tony uses Trends for his own punting too, he will tell you that there are times they are of little or no benefit. For example, in low-level races where the data does not exist, newer races with a limited data set that is misleading, or races where the pundits are saying “whose turn is it to win this time”.
He’s also quick to point out that you need many years of data to ensure that Trends even exist, so the decision was to focus on the bigger, established Handicaps and major racing festivals. In these events, Trends effectively help to reduce the field based on a variety of data points including, age, weight, odds, official ratings and recent form. Tony then provides a more focused review of the remaining qualifiers to try and find the winner.
Have the Trends made a profit?
Having provided some background about how the Trends selections are established, we now get to the main question punters always ask – did backing the Trends selections make money? We’ll move on to answer that question next!
The data used
A detailed review of the Trends data has been undertaken. The statistics we’ve used start from the very first Trends episode and cover just over six months in total. To ensure transparency, the figures have been compiled using the advised odds price, except at big meetings where BOG was available.
They also reflect the use of Oddschecker to make use of the maximum places available and whenever applicable, taking advantage of offers highlighted on betting.co.uk, EW cashback for the Grand National, for example.
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Trends results
There have been 70 Trends selections featured in a total of 38 Trends episodes. Amongst those selections, there were some big-priced winners, several more near misses and a number of placed horses with massive prices:
8 winners (an 11.43% strike rate) many at double priced figures of 20/1 and above22 selections who placed (31.43%) again, often at big prices up to 80/138 ‘honourable participants’ (54.29%) who failed to place2 non-runners (2.86%).
The review shows that the Trends have performed well above expectations over the first 38 episodes, as indicated both by the strike rates and from the figures, which we’ll move onto next.
All Trends figures have been calculated using a level £10 EW staking plan to back each selection. A payout has been achieved on 42% of the selections, yielding a 75% ROI and critically, over £1,000 in terms of total profits.
However, the advice remains to bet safe, as over half the time (58%) the stake was lost to the bookies, but also remember that it is a marathon, not a sprint approach.
Moving forward
So, it will be very interesting to see how the Trends stack up over the second half of 2022 and with Episode 39 coming soon, whether they will continue to find winners for the growing number of Trends followers who ‘live by the Trends and die by the Trends’.
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